Net migration falls sharply as fewer dependents arrive in the UK

Newly released Office for National Statistics figures show a dramatic drop in net migration.

Net migration for the year ending June 2024 is now 728,000, a 20% reduction from the previous 12 month period, which was 906,000.

The decline in the number of dependents on study visas is the main reason for this fall. In January 2024, the visa laws of the Conservative government prohibited many students from bringing their dependents with them.

Home Office data released earlier this month shows that in the 12 months leading up to June 2024 there were 94,000 less people who applied for study visas to enter the UK than the previous year.

In March 2024, visa changes prohibited care workers from bringing their dependents into the country.

The number of visas for skilled workers increased over the same time period. This was a slight increase, but it became noticeable before the government restructured the list of jobs that this visa is applicable to in April 2024. Since then, applications have decreased.

Home Office data released earlier this month shows that in the 12 months leading up to June 2024 there were 94,000 less people who applied for study visas to enter the UK than the year before.

Around 86% of the 1.2m people who moved to the UK by the end of June 2024 were non-EU citizens, 10% were EU citizens and 5% were British nationals.

Around 845,000 new arrivals were in the working age group (16-64 years), and 179,000 were children.

Indians were the most common non-EU immigrants for both study (127,000) and work (116,000).

There were more work dependents in the UK than main applicants (233,000; 23% non-EU+ citizens). The ONS said that this was an increase from the 166,000 people who came to the UK in the year ended June 2023. However, the latest data shows early signs of a decline.

The number of people leaving the country is also increasing: the ONS has estimated that long-term emigration will reach 479,000 for the year 2024. This is higher than the estimated 414,000 for the year ending in June 2023.

The 479,000 people leaving the UK before the end of 2024 are made up of 44% (211,000), 39% (189,000), and 16% (79,000), British citizens.

Rose Carey is the partner and head immigration at Charles Russell Speechlys. She said that it was important to determine exactly how much net migration would be ideal for the UK. “The prime Minister has stated that the net immigration figure is still high and has made promises to further reduce it,” she said. Every successive government has failed to determine the exact amount of net immigration based on the UK’s population and needs. In 2022, nearly 20% of UK residents were over the retirement age. This is a major problem for the NHS and care sector in terms of their ability to serve our aging population, but also for the economy and the lack of workers.

Carey said that Skills for Care’s report revealed that 540,000 social workers would be required by 2040 in order to meet the rising demand. She said that the sector is currently 131,000 staff short, and the UK has a labor shortage, which affects certain sectors more than others, such as construction, manufacturing, hospitality and care. ONS reported over 13% businesses had reported labour shortages.

She said: “The Prime Minister says he’ll ‘imminently publish’ a white book that outlines a plan to decrease immigration. He said that his government would turn things around ‘not through gimmicks but with graft’. Let’s hope this paper will take into consideration the realities of the UK as well as the labour shortage problem.

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