More than half of adults globally and a third of children and adolescents will be overweight or experiencing obesity by 2050, according to a shocking new prediction.
The forecast, published in The Lancet, suggests global obesity rates have more than doubled in the past three decades with this trend, if it continues, set to pose profound challenges for healthcare systems around the world.
Rising levels of obesity will also be a significant challenge for workplaces and employers, especially against the backdrop of an ageing workforce as well in the West.
The analysis from Global Burden of Disease Study BMI Collaborators, has argued that, without urgent policy reform and action, 3.8 billion adults and some 746 million children and adolescents will be living with overweight or obesity by 2050. It was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
This, the authors argue, poses “an unparalleled threat” of premature disease and death at local, national, and global levels.
Massive global failures in the response to the growing crisis over the past three decades have contributed to a “startling” increase in the number of adults (or aged 25 and older) and children and adolescents (aged five to 24 years) with overweight and obesity worldwide. These numbers have risen from 731 million and 198 million respectively in 1990 to 2.11 billion and 493 million in 2021.
The study predicts a substantial (121%) rise in obesity among young people globally, with the total number of children and adolescents with obesity predicted to reach 360 million by 2050 (an additional 186 million from 2021). The substantial increases in obesity forecast between 2022 and 2030, underscore the urgent need for action, the authors have argued.
“The unprecedented global epidemic of overweight and obesity is a profound tragedy and a monumental societal failure,” said lead author Professor Emmanuela Gakidou from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington.
Almost half of the global adult population (one billion males and 1.11 billion females aged 25 or older) were estimated to be living with overweight or obesity in 2021, the study found. The prevalence of obesity more than doubled worldwide between 1990 and 2021 in both adult men (from 5.8% to 14.8%) and women (10.2% to 20.8%).
Especially high levels have already been reached in Oceania and north Africa and the Middle East, with over 62% of adult males in Nauru, Cook Islands, and American Samoa, and over 71% of adult females in Tonga and Nauru living with obesity in 2021.
Among high-income countries, the USA had the highest rates of obesity, with around 42% of males and 46% of females affected by obesity in 2021.
Continuation of these trends would see global rates of overweight and obesity among adults rise from an estimated 43.4% in 2021 to around 57.4% for men in 2050, and from 46.7% to 60.3% for women, with the largest increases projected in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, driven by growing populations, the study forecast.
This would mean an estimated 1.69 billion additional adults living with overweight or obesity by 2050 (raising the total to 3.8 billion, of whom 1.95 billion will have obesity).
While the largest number of adults with overweight and obesity are still expected in China (627 million), India (450 million) and the USA (214 million) in 2050, the number in sub-Saharan Africa is forecast to rise by over 250% to 522 million, driven by population growth.
Worldwide, Nigeria stands out for its predicted rise in adults with overweight and obesity, with the number projected to more than triple from 36.6 million in 2021 to 141 million in 2050 – making it the country with the fourth-largest population of adults with overweight and obesity, the authors noted.
Around one in three adults worldwide are expected to be affected by obesity in 2050 – of whom around a quarter are forecast to be 65 years and older – with the highest levels in the United Arab Emirates and Nauru (more than 80% of males expected to have obesity in 2050); and in Tonga and Egypt (at least 87% of females).
Importantly, the authors also note that more recent generations are gaining weight faster than previous ones and obesity is occurring earlier, increasing the risk of complications such as type 2 diabetes, high blood pressure, cardiovascular diseases, and multiple cancers occurring at younger ages.
For example, in high-income countries, approximately 7% of men born in the 1960s were living with obesity at the age of 25, but this increased to around 16% for men born in the 1990s, and is forecast to reach 25% for men born in 2015.
“Preventing obesity must be at the forefront of policies in low- and middle-income countries,” said co-lead author Dr Jessica Kerr from Murdoch Children’s Research Institute in Australia.
“Policy action in these regions must balance the challenges of overnutrition with undernutrition and stunting, with interventions ranging from support for nutritional diets and regulating ultra-processed foods to promoting maternal and child health programmes that encourage pregnant women to follow a healthy diet and breastfeed. This is no time for business as usual. Many countries only have a short window of opportunity to stop much greater numbers shifting from overweight to obesity,” Dr Kerr added.
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